Jim Rogers is 100% sure a US recession will occur within a year

Rogers Holdings Chairman Jim Rogers says the US will sink into a recession within the next 12 months.

During an interview on Bloomberg TV with Guy Johnson, the famous investor said the downturn is guaranteed.

“It’s been seven years, eight years since we had the last recession in the US, and normally, historically we have them every four to seven years for whatever reason—at least we always have,” he said. “It doesn’t have to happen in four to seven years, but look at the debt, the debt is staggering.”

Most Wall Street economist have put the probability of a US recession at 33%.

While Rogers was not specific about his certainty in a US recession, he did note that economies were slowing or sluggish in China, Japan, and the euro zone.

Rogers says investors who focus on the right data will come to the same conclusion.

“If you look at the … payroll tax figures [in the U.S.], you see they’re already flat,” he concluded. “Don’t pay attention to the government numbers, pay attention to the real numbers.”

Rogers is long the US dollar following his revelation.

“It might even turn into a bubble,” he said of the greenback. “I mean, if markets around the world are crashing, let’s just say that scenario happens, everybody’s going to put their money in the US dollar—it could turn into a bubble.”